If you just built a new PCIE 4.0 system is PCIE 5.0 worth it? At this time with a recession looming, food prices high, gas prices high, I would say definitely not. Your money would be better spent on solar panels, lithium batteries and inverters, something you could eventually get your money back on.
So just how good is PCIE 5.0. It doubles the lane speeds once again, but here is the thing, no one has even put out a graphics card that can saturate a PCIE 3 x 16 lane, your PC won’t boot any faster on PCIE 5.0. Here is the other thing, the 2nm fabs are being set to go into production at end of 2024. Intel says it will have 1.5nm at that time, we will see. I think a better upgrade date would be end of 2025 if you already have a PCIE 4 system, giving enough time for motherboards and chips to come out for the 2nm fabrication process.
Also the good motherboards are not out yet for PCIE 5.0(at least the good ones). I expect they will start showing up around end of 2023.
With an extra 1gz of CPU speed that may help people’s compile times with things like app development and flutter. For a desktop, the extra SSD speed won’t even be noticeable compared to your PCIE 4.0 system. Where it would make sense is companies that depend on databases to serve their customers, the added speedup of searching millions of rows in a database would be a welcomed improvement. For gamers, graphics cards can’t even saturate PCIE 4 yet, not even worth it other than for bragging rights.
So basically for a server always, but a desktop it just isn’t there yet. Video card manufacturers cared more about crypto miners and their bottom line during pandemic, now they have some catching up to do and price drops to do for their gaming clients to make up for it.
All in all, if you have money to blow, it would definitely be a fun upgrade for the desktop, but that’s all it would be. I’d wait it out till the 2nm fabrication process comes out, Tailand expected to get one of the ASML machines sometime in 2024. Also I expect in next year or 2 we might finally have a quantum PCIE card to try.
The quantum world isn’t even going to start till they can get a quantum card in everyone’s computer so all the developers around the world can start programming for them, so engineers are going to have to step it up a notch in next couple years and get a product to market, as the technology will be useless for a year or 2 till developers around the world can make it useful.
I also think how artificial intelligence is done now, a really lame quantum physics algorithm on using neural nets to do probabilities will be a thing of the past as well, and that will be redone with quantum for real AI. It really is such a joke that even physicists put funny notes out there doors saying, “You are probably here”. I admit does crack me up a bit, if you understand how physicists think with observables and probabilities 🙂 I just can’t see in 2030 people still doing dumb things like still multiplying matrixes together to do AI, or it would be a sad world.
Think one of my saddest and happiest moments this year was talking with NASA, and telling them how behind they are, they have not even come up with a theory for faster than light speed travel yet. Granted a month after I did that now a theory exists, but that’s all it will remain for awhile now. Honestly its difficult what they do, I’d need to smoke a lot of weed to to come up with a practical way to solve that one, but at least they are somewhat on right track now.
Unfortunately NASA is now pre-occupied with certain asteroids that could end humanity, understandable, I would be to! Here is the thing though, without faster than light speed travel, is humanity really ever going to make it to a new exoplanet millions of light years away, there will always be a new asteroid out there coming to wipe us out like the dinosaurs. I think perhaps our best solution as a human race is yes to take out asteroids that may wipe us out in next century, but at same time develop the technology to travel faster than light speed otherwise we will just always be fighting the inevitable.
Also another thing we have to consider in 2022 with the new James Webb Telescope, is that the big bang theory is now disproven. Yes you heard that right, it is. So back to drawing board for astrophysicists.
2020-2030 is probably the best decade to be alive right now, we will see the most innovations in this time period than humanity has ever seen, as long as we don’t have to keep fighting with INTEL keeping Moore’s law going 🙂 At this point I think we are all tired of companies like ASML taking years to build a machine to keep that law going, hopefully quantum hits soon. I mean what are they going to do after the 2nm fabrication process, probably go to pinta units, it will never end, bring quantum out!
Speaking of quantum, I do see a downside already. The benefit will be enormous for humanity as a whole, but we need to regulate those pharmaceutical companies. I do not want to see humanity suffering because a bunch of biochemists played with quantum computers and CRISPR, then charge a fortune for their cures. That is like stealing from the open source world and not giving back. They never even would have had those quantum computers if it wasn’t for everyone that built it for them in first place. I think world needs to start an opensource project ASAP to combat this. Governments should pay them a one time fee for formula/algorithm how to produce it in their own labs, and governments should hand that over to open source project.
I really see a world in the future where everyone is trained in physics, engineering, programming and biochemistry with CRISPR. These should be the school curriculum for kids these days. When this does happen, and you get sick one day, even your friend next door could formulate the drugs for you to keep you alive or give you a CRISPR needle to modify your DNA so you are cured.
Make it fun for them, teach them how to setup a solar panel, teach them to program an app they would love world to have or make a robot do something. Teach them about DNA, RNA and CRISPR in a fun way. One day a generation is going to have to be so smart they can go underground with geothermal energy when Sun is ready to engulf the earth or asteroid hits first(most likely). Best thing we can do is give them the knowledge we should all have right now, but most don’t. A professor at a university once told me, “Never spoon feed anyone, only give them the tools and let them figure it out on their own”. Sound advice for the future, YouTube, free library books on their tablets, online shopping, the world is their oyster. I’ve done that as a university teacher myself in the past, given back to them. They loved it! Need any help rewriting their curriculums, give me a shout.
Shine bright like a diamond,